New Female Prime Minister Faces Thailand’s Political Turmoil

Thailand, known for military coups, political downfalls, and dashed democratic hopes, has a new Prime Minister. Paetongtarn Shinawatra is not only the youngest elected Prime Minister in the country’s history and the second woman to hold this post, but she is also a member of the Shinawatra political dynasty.

Decades-long human rights erosion

Since the establishment of a constitutional monarchy in 1932, Thailand has experienced a tumultuous political history marked by numerous military coups. It began with the 1932 coup, the first successful attempt. That was when Phraya Pahol Polpayuhasena, the leader of the People’s Party, overthrew the absolute monarchy and established a constitutional monarchy, which has remained the unchanged regime in Thailand till today. The regime has remained unchanged, as has the tradition of military coups. Since 1932, there have been 12 successful military coups, with the most recent and relevant to current policy occurring in 2014. Thailand has experienced significant turmoil due to conflicts between conservative monarchists and pro-democracy reformists. These opposing groups, well known in the 2000s as the 'yellow shirts’ and 'red shirts,’ highlight the deep social rift between the urban elites and the rural population.

The 'Yellow Shirts’ emerged in the mid-2000s, initially to oppose the government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who they accused of corruption and abuse of power. The movement is supported mainly by urban elites, royalists, and the military. The yellow color they chose as their symbol is also associated with the Thai monarchy, representing the group’s support for the so-called status quo and the royal family. The Yellow Shirts were involved in significant protests, including the 2006 protests that led to the military coup that ousted Thaksin.
On the other hand, the 'Red Shirts’ are supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra and his policies, which were popular among the rural poor and working class. The movement is associated with a push for greater democracy and opposition to the traditional elite’s dominance. The colour red represents the fight for democracy and social justice. It became a symbol of the pro-Thaksin movement and, more broadly, of opposition to military intervention in politics.

One of the most significant moments of the past decade in Thai politics remains the 2006 military coup. It was conducted by Royal Thai Army members and triggered by Thaksin Shinawatra’s policy, who attended the UN General Assembly in New York during the coup. The coup was bloodless, although the actions of the ‘Yellow Shirts’ resulted in significant polarization of Thai society. Not only did the coup end Thaksin’s premiership, but it also undermined democratic institutions and processes. The subsequent political environment was characterized by restricted civil liberties and manipulated elections. The military also suppressed and censored media outlets, declared martial law, and banned protests. Most notably, the Internal Security Act introduced in 2008 allowed the military unprecedented influence on the government. According to Amnesty International, the Internal Security Act targets freedom of movement, freedom of assembly, freedom from arbitrary detention, the right to fair trial procedures and the right to privacy.

It is worth noting that the decline in human rights protection did not start with the 2006 coup but was also evident during Thaksin’s premiership.

Thaksin Shinawatra: Businessman, Politician, Savior, or Human Rights Abuser?

He served as the Prime Minister of Thailand from 2001 to 2006, but Thaksin Shinawatra is a businessman more than a politician. He built his empire primarily through his successful business ventures. In the 1980s, he founded Shinawatra Computer and Communications Co. Ltd., which became one of Thailand’s largest computer and communications companies. In 1990, he founded Advanced Info Service (AIS), Thailand’s largest mobile phone operator. Moreover, he also founded the Shinawatra Satellite Company, which launched Thailand’s first communications satellite in 1993. Altogether, by the time he entered politics in the late 1990s, Thaksin was already one of Thailand’s wealthiest businessmen, with a net worth estimated at over $2 billion.

As a Prime Minister, he gained popularity by implementing economic policies aimed to help Thailand’s rural population, which became known as ‘Thaksinomics’. Thaksin’s policies included reducing rural poverty, introducing universal healthcare, providing farmers with debt relief, and subsidizing transportation fuel prices. However, his tenure was also marked by controversy over corruption and human rights abuses. Among human rights violations is the brutal anti-drug crackdown launched in 2003, which resulted in the killing of more than 2,000 people. Moreover, during his tenure, multiple cases of unnecessary use of force against demonstrators or even torture of detainees occurred.

Between One Military Coup and Another: Political Turmoil and the Yellow and Red Shirts’ Fight for Power

After the 2006 coup, Thaksin was in self-imposed exile, but his family and supporters continued to be influential in Thai politics. That said, the first months after the coup were not favorable to pro-Thaksin followers.

Following the overthrow of Thaksin Shinawatra, the military set up an interim government to run the country until a new constitution was enacted and new elections were held. During this period, General Surayud Chulanont, a former army commander, was appointed Prime Minister after he received backing from the king. In 2007, a new constitution favorable to the military was adopted. It deliberately limited the influence of Thaksin and his supporters. Moreover, it allowed the military and the jurisdiction to have a greater influence in politics. In spite of these precautions, in 2007, after a year of interim rule, parliamentary elections were won by the People’s Power Party (PPP), which was a new party associated with Thaksin. Notably, Samak Sundaravej, a Thaksin supporter, was chosen as Prime Minister.

Political tensions intensified after the elections, which led to the investigation of Samak Sundaravej by Thailand’s Constitutional Court. He was accused of violating the law by accepting payment for hosting a TV cooking show while serving as Prime Minister, which resulted in his removal from office. Somchai Wongsawat, Thaksin’s brother-in-law, took over as Prime Minister. However, due to the protests by the ‘Yellow Shirts,’ the Constitutional Court dissolved the People’s Power Party and banned its leaders from political activity, forcing Somchai Wongsawat to step down as Prime Minister. As a consequence, the Democratic Party, supported by the ‘Yellow Shirts’ and the military, seized power, and Abhisit Vejjajiva became the new Prime Minister.

The pro-Thaksin party returned to power in 2011 when a general election was held. They were preceded by the ‘red-shirt’ protests in 2010, which were brutally suppressed by the military. The Pheu Thai party, led by Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin’s younger sister, won the elections. Yingluck became Thailand’s first female prime minister, but her rule lasted only until 2014, when another military coup took place, and General Prayuth Chan-ocha seized power. His takeover as prime minister was the beginning of another period of military rule in Thailand.

Times of Hybrid Regime: Thailand’s Facade of Democracy

Military rule under Prayuth Chan-ocha continued until 2019. His regime restricted civil liberties, censored the media, and suppressed opposition. During his tenure, a new constitution was adopted in 2017. Notably, the constitution introduced a method of electing a new Prime Minister based on votes from both houses of parliament, with a dominant role for the Senate. Under the new constitution, all 250 members of the Senate are appointed by the military, which means that even if a party wins a majority in the lower house, they still need the support of the Senate and, therefore, the military to form a government. Prayuth Chan-ocha, with the joint vote of both houses of parliament, was re-elected as Prime Minister in the general election held in 2019, although Thaksin’s supporters won a significant number of votes.

The political uncertainty and continuous military rule resulted in a wave of mass pro-democracy protests in 2020. These protests were led mainly by the youth and were the biggest since 2014. They erupted against restrictions on civil liberties, autocracy, and COVID-19 restrictions. Prior to the pandemic, Thailand struggled with a hybrid regime that suppressed civic space using harsh laws and disinformation campaigns; nevertheless, the impact of the pandemic could not be overlooked. The pandemic, coupled with economic mismanagement and increased restrictions, triggered civil society and fostered protests.

Demonstrators demanded constitutional reform, greater democratic freedoms, a limitation on the monarch’s power, and Prayuth’s resignation. Protests intensified after the dissolution of the Future Forward party, which was the democratic opposition and had strong youth support. This political turmoil resulted in the government’s increasing repression.

Overall, the period between 2014 and 2020 in Thailand could be described as a hybrid regime combining elements of democracy and authoritarianism. In a hybrid regime, some democratic institutions and practices exist, such as elections, a constitution, and sometimes even a relatively free press. However, these democratic elements are undermined or manipulated by authoritarian practices. In the case of Thailand, it exhibits such practices as imposing martial law, restricting civil liberties, controlling the press and media, the junta’s suspension of parts of the constitution, a heavily influenced electoral process, and the military cracking down on political opposition.

Election Victory, Courtroom Drama, and the Third Political Rebirth of the People’s Party

In 2023, significant parliamentary elections took place that tested Prayuth’s dominance. The elections were successful for the opposition, resulting in a change of government. The Move Forward Party (successor to the dissolved Future Forward Party) and the Pheu Thai Party (led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra) won over their military-backed counterparts. Despite this victory, the old political elites continue to have a significant influence on politics.

Moreover, on August 7, 2024, the Move Forward Party was dissolved due to a Constitutional Court decision. They accused the party of violating the lèse-majesté law, which prohibits insulting or defaming a monarch or other head of state. The ruling from the Constitutional Court came as no surprise, given its decision in January declaring that Move Forward’s campaign promise to reform the royal defamation laws was unconstitutional.

The dissolution of the party was met with criticism and protests, with many arguing that the decision was politically motivated and aimed at stifling democratic freedoms in Thailand. Although the party’s supporters regrouped under a new name, the People’s Party, the hybrid regime has effectively prevented some key figures from participating in politics. For instance, the former leader of the Move Forward Party, Pita Limjaroenrat, and a few of his associates were banned from politics for 10 years. In other words, the Future Forward Party, which is the third ‘incarnation’ of the People’s Party, must start over without the benefit of relying on already-popular politicians.

Unexpected New Prime Minister: Political Dynasty Back in Power?

On August 14, 2024, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was removed from office. He was chosen as Prime Minister after the 2023 elections and came from the Pheu Thai Party, a party associated with Thaksin Shinawatra. The Constitutional Court accused him of lacking ethical standards due to appointing lawyer Pichit Chuenban to his cabinet, who had a criminal record.

In the wake of this political downfall, another member of the Pheu Thai Party came into power. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, was sworn in as the youngest Prime Minister in Thailand’s history on August 18. Interestingly, she expressed support for Srettha. Paetongtarn, as the new Prime Minister, will have a lot on her plate—not only will she need to challenge the general political turmoil and fight the family’s old foes, but she will also have to deal with a declining economy.

It is worth noting that Paetongtarn is the third member of the Shinawatra family to hold the office of Prime Minister. Paetongtarn, her father Thaksin and her aunt Yingluck. Another member, although with a different surname, but still related to the family — Thaksin’s brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat. This poses the question of whether the opposition to military rule is actually democratic or if military rule and the Shinawatra family are merely two sides of the same coin.

It is worth noting that her party entered into a controversial arrangement with the military. Former enemies united against a new threat — the popular, youth-supported Move Forward Party. Pheu Thai pushed Move Forward into opposition and, in exchange, received a promise of allowing Thaksin to return to Thailand after 15 years in exile. Paetongtarn Shinawatra denied this claim; however, many experts speculate that the deal did actually occur. The removal of Srettha from office has significantly endangered this arrangement.

Uncertain Future with the Certainty of Upcoming Political Challenges

Judging by events of the past decade, Thai politics is very likely to remain as puzzling as it already is. Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s close relationship with her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, could potentially lead to accusations that she is nothing more than a proxy for him, which could undermine her authority. Moreover, the challenges she will face would be difficult for someone with much more experience in her position. The way she responds to these challenges will define her authority as Prime Minister.

Additionally, the pro-democracy movement led by Pita Limjaroenrat is likely to continue pushing for a liberal transition, especially as it is supported by youth voters. This could further destabilize the political landscape. Meanwhile, the military may resist efforts to diminish its power, as it effectively did throughout the last decade.

All of this suggests that Thailand will face multiple challenges and changes in the upcoming months. The outcome of these dynamics will have significant implications for Thailand’s domestic stability and its role on the international stage. The uncertainty surrounding Thailand’s political trajectory is particularly relevant to international observers, investors, and regional partners. The nation’s ability to maintain stability while progressing towards political changes will be crucial in determining its future prosperity and international relations.

Andżelika Serwatka Licencjat ukończyła na Uniwersytecie Łódzkim ze studiów azjatyckich, a studia magisterskie ze stosunków międzynarodowych również na tej samej uczelni. W 2022 roku, działając w Studenckim Kole Naukowym Azji Wschodniej i Pacyfiku WSMiP UŁ, wzięła udział w wyprawie badawczej do Wietnamu. W 2023 roku zaangażowała się w projekt “Europe as an Actor in Asia” (Jean Monnet Modules), gdzie podczas wizyty studyjnej w Wietnamie prezentowała wyniki swoich badań na Uniwersytecie Fulbrighta w Ho Chi Minh oraz na Vietnamese-German University w Binh Duong. W 2023 roku uczestniczyła również w programie Transcultural Caravan, prowadzonym z inicjatywy Zeppelin University. Ponadto, brała udział w wolontaryjnym projekcie w Hebronie, gdzie prowadziła zajęcia z konwersacji w języku angielskim.