Interview with Arthur Tun on Myanmar’s Coup d’État

Arthur Tun is a PhD Candidate in History and War Studies at King’s College London with a Master’s in Strategic Studies (military) and a BA in History and Theatre/Drama Studies. He worked at the Myanmar Institute of Strategic and International Studies with a focus on Civil-Military Relations in Myanmar and its geopolitical position in the region. Presently, he is looking to the First Anglo-Burmese War 1824-1826, where he seeks to use his familiarity with both British and Burmese military histories to address some of the strategic and underlying social issues in modern Myanmar.

On the 1st of February 2021, Myanmar’s military forces overthrew the government and arrested the Prime Minister, Aung San Suu Kyi. Although the military junta had governed Myanmar for many years until 2011, when the process of democratisation began, there was hope among Myanmar’s citizens that the era of authoritarian rule had passed. Unfortunately, the military attempted to retake full control over the country, which led to resistance from various groups, mainly ethnic minorities. On the fifth anniversary of these events, the Boym Institute decided to ask what Myanmar looks like after the coup.

Paweł Mazurek: How did you find out about the coup, and what was your day like at that time?

Arthur Tun: I found out about the coup through an Instagram story 8am in the morning on the 1st of February 2021, the moment when I woke up and opened my phone.

PM: How did Myanmar society react to the military coup?

AT: Myanmar society reacted with shock and horror, especially from those who had grown up under the previous military rule before 2011. It did not make sense for the military leaders to launch a coup against us, as they and their networks benefited greatly from the economic openness the country had gained in the last decade before 2021. Personally, for me, it was a shock that it happened so soon. As someone who worked in a research think tank part of the civilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, tension between the military and their allies and the civilian government and their supporters had always been around, and a potential conflict was not completely out of our mind, but I did not expect it to happen so soon.

PM: How do guerrilla groups operate in Myanmar, and what do relations between society and the guerrillas look like?

AT: I can only speak for the guerrillas in Yangon, which were largely cell-based, generally made up of youths, many from Gen Z, who linked up through social media as forms of communication, ranging from WhatsApp, Facebook, and Viber, though more secure apps became prominent as crackdowns increased. Relations in the city, at least, were localised at first, with many cells operating within their own neighbourhoods, but this was largely in the beginning. After the brutal crackdowns, most of the youths who wanted to fight fled to territories along the border regions controlled by the Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs), depending on where you were. By the time of the fighting and the formation of the National Unity Government and its declaration of war against the State Administration Council (SAC) Junta government, the guerrillas were organised along two major lines, the People Defense Force (PDF) and the Local Defense Force (LDF). In theory, the PDFs were combat oriented and more mobile, while the LDF was more support and static in nature, providing much of the intelligence. The cells in the cities were a mix of both in the beginning. Much of the guerrilla groups are local youths that chose to fight and thus were quite close and determined to look after, at the very least, their local communities and thus enjoyed much support from society in the beginning. In the later part of the war, as desperation hits, some groups have been hated by the society for pillaging and plundering, but the majority of the groups remain to be seen positively by the Myanmar public, even as criticism against the Government in Exile, the National Unity Government has increased.

PM: How has life changed for ordinary people since the coup?

AT: Quite drastic. Without direct support from the international community or our neighbours, the shortage of necessities has increased. Thanks to the economic development that occurred during the 10 years of liberal democracy under Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD government, the cities at least have some basic foundation and connections to help keep things going for the ordinary people, but it is a struggle, especially for goods such as medicine and other healthcare. Electricity and water supply are rationed inconsistently, with usually only 6 to 8 hours per day. Fuel shortage is common. Inflation is extremely high, jumping nearly 3 times. It used to be 1300 kyat to 1 US Dollar, but has changed to 3600 kyat now! It is difficult, especially for those elderly whose adult children, especially male may have gone to war or to avoid being conscripted. It is something I remain worried about as of this interview.

PM: How does the current government treat people, and what is the public’s attitude toward the government?

AT: The SAC government could best be described as fully tyrannical to being neglectful, depending on where you were. Objectively speaking, the SAC government is definitely hated by the public at worst, and seen as unreliable and unworthy at best. Most SAC appointees do not pursue much public work or do much to help the community, and work on hearts and minds, almost like treating the people like a potential enemy. Some could be as viral media portrays them extremely cruel, but fear of being assassinated or attacked by the local resistance has made it less for many. Regardless, SAC local authorities are seen to be extremely corrupted who need to be paid bribes for necessities or paperwork. Many Burmese say the law is in the hands of the man with the gun and could change depending on what the person would do, and we are all at the mercy of that man.

As for the soldiers, while not all SAC troops would commit atrocities, the fear is largely how you can’t tell who would commit them and who wouldn’t. Some troops at checkpoints or on patrol fear the public itself, of hidden guerrillas attacking them, and this mutual fear of each other tends to keep the peace, as it somewhat did for my own neighbourhood. However, at many other times, these garrisons would harass the people around them, then retreat into their fortified area, such as robbing cafes and grocery stalls. I witnessed both cases, with one time at a checkpoint, a soldier had checked my phone and saw a meme post making fun of the SAC government, where he simply laughed and handed back telling me to delete it. In another, I saw them firing into houses, shouting and harassing people near their base. In another, when our neighbourhood caught burglars and looters and told the SAC Police to arrest them, they asked if we would give them safe passage, and we were not even resistance fighters. It is quite complicated.

The SAC’s excuse is that they cannot operate efficiently or properly until the rebels are defeated, but growing up in the late 1990s and early 2000s under the previous junta, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), it was largely the same experience I went through. The corruption, constant military checks and unknown civilians dressed as secret police like informants. I would compare that period to Poland under Nazi Occupation and the Polish People’s Republic, but with a stronger military presence. It is heartbreaking for me as the uniforms of men who are supposed to protect you are what you need to fear most.

PM: Is there any chance of political change five years after the military coup?

AT: Personally, I do not think so unless a dramatic shift happens in the war or if there is a major foreign intervention. The only change I can see is if the SAC makes major concessions and offers to drop or share political power and recognise the forces opposing them, such as a moderate faction taking over. However, this is a slim chance as the Myanmar military tradition comes from the formation of two armies during World War II, the British Burma Army and the Japanese Imperial Army, where men are taught to fight a stubborn, unyielding defence. They will retreat until they can no longer stand at a final stand. Furthermore, a devastating earthquake that killed hundreds and injured thousands had happened, and the SAC still resolved to fight on. That is the sort of determination that suggests their leader and causes matters more to them than the people. And the resistance will continue to fight them as long as they remain in power and dictate their terms. I cannot see anything will change in the near future as much as I wish it could.

Paweł Mazurek National Security student at Catholic University of Lublin. Graduate of International Relations (BA). Research interests oscillate around China's foreign policy, especially relations with the US and the theory of international relations. Privately, he is interested in psychology.