
As the awareness of the scale and pervasiveness of climate impacts on human societies keeps rising, so does the frequency with which the terms “climate refugees” and “climate migrants” are being used in the public discourse “to describe those who are being displaced due to adverse consequences related to climate change” (Atapattu, 2020). One might be forgiven to think these terms – given their apparent utility and ubiquity – are purely descriptive and conveniently straightforward. Not quite. And contesting their seeming obviousness is key to tackling the issues that they purport to describe.
Climate has played a significant role in population movements throughout history and across the globe (de Sherbinin, 2020). Changes in the most fundamental conditions that underpin human existence, that is those that determine access to necessities such as food and shelter, impact the ability of individuals and communities to sustain themselves. And yet the emphasis on “climate” in “climate refugees” overstates the case by subscribing to a deterministic view of human action that obscures a more complex reality (Goodfellow, 2020). While undoubtedly important, climate factors don’t motivate human action in isolation from other factors, whether social, economic, or political, let alone override them. “People rarely move solely for climate-related reasons” (Atapattu, 2020) and in most cases what climate disruption does is “tip the scales” so that previously difficult but manageable conditions become intolerable, thus precipitating displacement (de Sherbinin, 2020).
Such “tipping points” are made possible by the reigning development model of the past decades, whereby populations in the Global South pay the price of improvements in quality of life enjoyed by the Global North through the exploitative resource extraction and waste disposal (including dumping CO2 into the atmosphere) that leave their regions degraded or uninhabitable. Worse still, these populations are inspired, encouraged, or compelled to abandon their ancestral ways of life that evolved within the limits of their local ecosystems, and instead to pursue the unsustainable mirage of the so-called “Western lifestyle”. Any short-term rise in living standards in the wake of such abandonment comes at the expense of long-term survivability, as whatever gains seem to be made occur within the framework that is bound to negate them in the near future. And even these temporary gains may not have come nor ever will, as most of the so-called climate refugees and migrants “were poor to begin with and will be poor if we solve climate change” (Goodfellow, 2020). What the worsening impacts of climate change do exceedingly well is expose this underlying dynamic of injustice and short-termism.
Due to these very complexities the number of people who will be forced to move because of climate change is hard to establish with any precision. While some confidently claim that “[o]ver the next 30 years, the climate crisis will displace more than 140 million people within their own countries—and many more beyond them” (Taiwo & Cibralic, 2020), others caution that while “[p]redictions range from 20 million to 200 million of environmental refugees by 2050… these figures are contested” (Atapattu, 2020). For some, the larger the number, the better, as predictions of “hordes” of climate migrants are being exploited and weaponized by movements that seek to accomplish further tightening of migration controls and inflaming of anti-migrant rhetoric – all this despite the fact that most migration occurs within countries or between immediate neighbours (Goodfellow, 2020) and that the countries that host the greatest number of refugees and displaced persons are in fact in the Global South (Atapattu, 2020). Whether (or for how long) this state of affairs is going to continue remains to be seen; what is beyond any doubt is that those who will bear the earliest and greatest brunt of climate disruption are the most vulnerable individuals and communities, even as they have contributed the least to it.
This is where the notion of “climate apartheid” comes in. With the climate crisis intensifying, “social divisions will arise within countries and communities between those who can pay to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and those who cannot” (Taiwo & Cibralic, 2020). These divisions are not the product of any neutral processes that might have sorted out the deserving from the undeserving (despite – tacit more often than explicit – claims to the contrary). While it’s true that “humans have the ability to adapt as well as free will” (de Sherbinin, 2020), available resources and options are constrained by circumstances that are often beyond control of those whose lives are most impacted by them. The ways in which communities can respond to climate events depend on their economic power, location, access to resources, and other factors that are largely shaped and explained by the persistent legacy of slavery, colonialism, and imperialism, that is, global injustices and inequalities that enriched some countries while impoverishing others and whose detrimental effects are now being exacerbated by global warming (Taiwo & Cibralic, 2020).
The term “climate refugee”, for all its growing popularity, “is not a legal term and its use in the legal context is misleading” (Atapattu, 2020). It’s perhaps surprising (and certainly disappointing) that despite the rising awareness of climate change both in the public sphere and the political circles, there are still no internationally recognized conventions that address climate migration, which leaves authorities with no firm guidelines to follow (Pierfilippo & Weinstein, 2020). “[S]ociety and institutions are ill-prepared to meet the coming challenge” (de Sherbinin, 2020) as existing frameworks and solutions in the age of climate change – perhaps the ultimate “threat multiplier” – that aggravates existing problems (Goodfellow, 2020) are bound to fall far short of what is required of the global community in the face of a truly global disruption.
Providing the necessary impulse for reimagining and reorganizing international efforts to alleviate at least some of the social and humanitarian harms of the impending climate catastrophe would require reframing the issue as one of climate reparations. Western states, which have disproportionately contributed to the environmental crisis now assailing the planet, need to see themselves as responsible for having created a system that continues to structurally disadvantage victims of climate breakdown, and as such for redressing these injustices and inequities, so that “taking up their share of global refugee resettlement becomes an obligation rather than an act of charity” (Taiwo & Cibralic, 2020). Through such lens, “climate migration” would correctly be seen as an outcome of a complex process that needs to be dealt with synergistically both in technical and moral terms.
The public sentiment towards migrants has been turning negative in multiple countries, largely because of successful scare tactics and fear campaigns instigated by far-right politicians. This is not inevitable, however. Studies show that “there is a consistently higher social acceptance of migrants fleeing political persecution or war than of economic migrants” and climate events are seen as legitimate reasons to migrate, though not more legitimate than economic needs (Spilker et al., 2020). What this suggests is that one way to help residents of receiving areas in coming to terms with the necessity to welcome people fleeing climate disruption they are unable to adapt to would be to emphasise the political aspect of the situation rather than the economic one, and stress the human dimension of the entire predicament. Such framing could trigger positive responses and allow for a successful integration of the new arrivals into their receiving populations.
“Already, more people live outside of their countries of birth than ever before” (Shah, 2020) and as the 21st century progresses, the numbers are only going to increase. While it’s necessary to mitigate climate disruption as well as to adapt to it, not all individuals and populations will be able to stay in their current locations.
Nor should they. Climate crisis has exposed tensions and fractures in the foundations of the international order and the global economy that can’t be disregarded and mustn’t be downplayed. To build resilience, which “will be critical for societies to navigate the various emerging challenges in this century” (de Sherbinin, 2020), we need to enhance our understanding of and approach to migration in the shadow of the looming climate crisis.
Przypisy:
Atapattu, S. (2018). “Climate Refugees” and the Role of International Law. [online] Oxford Research Group. Available at: <https://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/blog/climate-refugees-and-the-role-of-international-law> [Accessed 2 November 2020].
de Sherbinin, A. (2020). COVID–19 Impacts of Climate Change as Drivers of Migration. [online] Migration Policy Institute. Available at: <https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/impacts-climate-change-drivers-migration> [Accessed 2 November 2020].
Goodfellow, M. (2020). How Helpful Is The Term ‘Climate Refugee’?. [online] the Guardian. Available at: <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/31/how-helpful-is-the-term-climate-refugee> [Accessed 2 November 2020].
Pierfilippo, M. N. & A. Weinstein (2020). COVID–19 Is a Test for Climate Migration and the World Is Failing. [online] The Diplomat. Available at: <https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/covid-19-is-a-test-for-climate-migration-and-the-world-is-failing/> [Accessed 2 November 2020].
Shah, S. (2020). Climate Change Will Drive People Across Borders. [online] Foreign Affairs. Available at: <https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/central-america-caribbean/2020-07-29/climate-change-will-drive-people-across-borders> [Accessed 2 November 2020].
Spilker, G., Q. Nguyen, V. Koubi & T. Böhmelt (2020). Attitudes of urban residents towards environmental migration in Kenya and Vietnam. Nature Climate Change, 10(7), pp. 622-627. <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0805-1>.
Taiwo, O. O. & B. Cibralic (2020). The Case for Climate Reparations. [online] Foreign Policy. Available at: <https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/10/case-for-climate-reparations-crisis-migration-refugees-inequality/> [Accessed 2 November 2020].

Dawid Juraszek Expert on global environmental issues. Author of the book 'Anthropocene for Beginners. Climate, Environment, Pandemics in the Age of Man'. PhD student at Maastricht University (cognitive ecocriticism), graduate in English philology, educational leadership, environmental management and international relations. He has written for, among others, Dwutygodnik, Liberté!, Krytyka Polityczna, Gazeta Wyborcza, Polityka, Newsweek, Ha!art, Lampa, Focus Historia, Travel and Poznaj Świat, as well as for numerous publications in the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Ireland and New Zealand. He has worked in Chinese higher education for several years.
czytaj więcej
Central Asia. The winding road to regional integration
The aim of the paper is to present the current stage of integration among the Central Asian republics and to analyze directions and dynamics of this process in the nearest future. This study also attempts to identify factors which can either slow down or strengthen the process of integration as well as its causes and consequences.
Jerzy OlędzkiPatrycja Pendrakowska as a founding member of the WICCI’s India-EU Business Council
By sharing knowledge, business opportunities, and best practices the Council generates awareness of women's contributions in developing the India-EU relations.
In the first part of this analysis of Ulaanbaatar’s winning 2040 General Development Plan Conception (GDPC) I look into the historical preconditions for the city’s planned development as well as present the legislative climate in which works on Ulaanbaatar’s future development strategies have recently found themselves.
Paweł SzczapWhy is stronger foreign investment protection needed in relations with China?
One of the key elements of the protection of foreign investment (and thus the foreign investor) is the mechanism for resolving disputes between the state and the foreign investor. The mechanism itself may take different forms...
Adrian ZwolińskiAre Polish Universities Really Victims of a Chinese Influence Campaign?
The Chinese Influence Campaign can allegedly play a dangerous role at certain Central European universities, as stated in the article ‘Countering China’s Influence Campaigns at European Universities’, (...) However, the text does ignore Poland, the country with the largest number of universities and students in the region. And we argue, the situation is much more complex.
Patrycja PendrakowskaAt the Boym Institute we are coming out with new initiative: #WomeninBoym, which aims to show the activity of this – often less visible – half of society. We will write about what women think, say and do. We will also publicise what women are researching and writing.
Online Course: “Conflict Resolution and Democracy”
The course will be taught via interactive workshops, employing the Adam Institute’s signature “Betzavta – the Adam Institute’s Facilitation Method“, taught by its creator, Dr. Uki Maroshek-Klarman. The award-winning “Betzavta” method is rooted in an empirical approach to civic education, interpersonal communication and conflict resolution.
San Zhong Zhanfa or Three Warfares. Chinese Hybrid Warfare
Cognitive operations are becoming an increasingly significant and common element of non-kinetic military operations. States and other political players deliberately manipulate the way their actions, those of their allies and those of their adversaries are perceived by the governments and societies of other international players.
Paweł BehrendtA letter from the Adam Institute in Jerusalem
This letter is part of our series on the Voices from Asia. We share our platform with Dr. Uki Maroshek-Klarman who serves as the Executive Director at the Adam Institute for Democracy and Peace in Jerusalem, Israel.
Uki Maroshek-KlarmanChina’s Social Credit System – How will it affect Polish enterprises in China?
The Social Credit System currently being rolled out in China may pose significant organisational and legal challenges for both foreign and Polish entities operating in China. We invite you to read our report, prepared in cooperation between the Boym Institute and Kochanski & Partners.
Patrycja PendrakowskaJoin us for the Adam Institute’s Latest Online Course
Conflict resolution models have been primarily crafted and codified by men. The Adam Institute for Democracy and Peace invites you to be part of that much-needed change through an experiential and innovative Online Course "Conflict Resolution in the Context of Gender".
Not only tests and masks: the history of Polish-Vietnamese mutual helpfulness
On the initiative of the Vietnamese community in Poland and Vietnamese graduates of Polish universities, our country received support from Vietnam - a country that deals with the threat posed by Sars-Cov-2 very effectively.
Grażyna Szymańska-Matusiewicz“May you be the mother of a thousand sons” – the status of women in Indian society
The 1950 Indian Constitution introduced the principle of equal opportunities for gender equality, which grants women and men the same rights in family life, political, social and economic life. So why is it that nearly forty per cent of girls aged 15-17 do not attend school, the custom of dowry giving is still cultivated and prenatal sex selection is still a huge social problem?
Magdalena RybczyńskaOnline Course: “Educational tools for addressing the effects of war”
The Adam Institute for Democracy and Peace is offering “Betzavta” facilitators, middle school and high school educators, social activists, communal activists and those assisting refugees an online seminar to explore educational issues related to wartime.
Paweł Behrendt for 9DASHLINE: The South China Sea – from colonialism to the Cold War
We would like to inform, that 9DASHLINE has published article of Paweł Behrendt - the Boym Institute Analyst, in which he wrote about history of the South China Sea dispute over the 20th century.
Paweł BehrendtBook review of "GDR International Development Policy Involvement. Doctrine and Strategies between Illusions and Reality 1960-1990, The example (South) Africa", written by Ulrich van der Heyden and published by Lit Verlag in 2013.
Nicolas LeviAsia-Integration – Follow-up Report on Polish Policy Challenges Towards Asian Countries
The debate was the consequence of positive reactions to the open letter that the Boym Institute published in the summer of 2020. Many of its readers pointed out the necessity of broad consultations regarding the principles of the new multidimensional policy in order to reflect the diversity of perspectives, interests and conditions.
Saudi ‘Vision 2030’. How the Kingdom is using oil to end its economic overdependence on oil.
With the advent of clean energy technologies the Saudis realize they need to end their economic dependency on oil. ‘Vision 2030’ is a vast and complex plan that seeks to preserve Saudi Arabia’s regional power, economic prosperity, and - not the least - authoritarian rule in the post-oil future.
Jan KosińskiInterview: Why Does Poland Need ‘17+1’?
Interview with Michał Wójcik - Director of the Department of International Cooperation of the Ministry of Marine Economy and Inland Navigation (DWM MGMiŻŚ). In the Ministry, he is leading the Coordinating Secretariat for Maritime Issues , monitoring the cooperation of Central and Eastern European States with China.
Krzysztof ZalewskiWomen’s liberation in China: interview with prof. Wu Lijuan
Interview of Ewelina Horoszkiewicz with prof. Wu Lijuan - Associate Professor at the Department of Sociology at Peking University. Her research concentrates on the gender issues and social changes brought about by globalization. She wrote a book “Job Placements and Job Shifts in China: The Effects of Education, Family Background and Gender”.
Ewelina HoroszkiewiczNew Female Prime Minister Faces Thailand’s Political Turmoil
Thailand, known for military coups, political downfalls, and dashed democratic hopes, has a new Prime Minister. Paetongtarn Shinawatra is not only the youngest elected Prime Minister in the country's history and the second woman to hold this post, but she is also a member of the Shinawatra political dynasty.
Andżelika SerwatkaFrom ‘strategic engagement’ to ‘competition’. Interview with William Yu
Ewelina Horoszkiewicz in conversation with Professor William Yu (UCLA) on USA, China and Europe. Professor William Yu is an economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast and specializes in the economies of Los Angeles and China.
Ewelina Horoszkiewicz80th anniversary of Indonesian Proclamation of Independence and 70th anniversary of Poland-Indonesia diplomatic relations. April 23rd, at 10:00 am, aula im. prof. Waldemara Michowicza, ul. Lindleya 5A, Łódź.
To free oneself from the Chinese embrace. On Indo-Russian relations with Nandan Unnikrishnan
Interview with Nandan Unnikrishnan, who has served for many years as a correspondent for Indian media in Russia. Currently he is a research fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in Delhi. The interview was conducted during the Raisina Dialogue 2019 in Delhi.
Krzysztof Zalewski