Analyses

Are “Climate Refugees” (Just) About Climate?

As the awareness of the scale and pervasiveness of climate impacts on human societies keeps rising, so does the frequency with which the terms “climate refugees” and “climate migrants” are being used in the public discourse “to describe those who are being displaced due to adverse consequences related to climate change” (Atapattu, 2020).

Instytut Boyma 25.12.2020

As the awareness of the scale and pervasiveness of climate impacts on human societies keeps rising, so does the frequency with which the terms “climate refugees” and “climate migrants” are being used in the public discourse “to describe those who are being displaced due to adverse consequences related to climate change” (Atapattu, 2020). One might be forgiven to think these terms – given their apparent utility and ubiquity – are purely descriptive and conveniently straightforward. Not quite. And contesting their seeming obviousness is key to tackling the issues that they purport to describe.

Climate has played a significant role in population movements throughout history and across the globe (de Sherbinin, 2020). Changes in the most fundamental conditions that underpin human existence, that is those that determine access to necessities such as food and shelter, impact the ability of individuals and communities to sustain themselves. And yet the emphasis on “climate” in “climate refugees” overstates the case by subscribing to a deterministic view of human action that obscures a more complex reality (Goodfellow, 2020). While undoubtedly important, climate factors don’t motivate human action in isolation from other factors, whether social, economic, or political, let alone override them. “People rarely move solely for climate-related reasons” (Atapattu, 2020) and in most cases what climate disruption does is “tip the scales” so that previously difficult but manageable conditions become intolerable, thus precipitating displacement (de Sherbinin, 2020).

Such “tipping points” are made possible by the reigning development model of the past decades, whereby populations in the Global South pay the price of improvements in quality of life enjoyed by the Global North through the exploitative resource extraction and waste disposal (including dumping CO2 into the atmosphere) that leave their regions degraded or uninhabitable. Worse still, these populations are inspired, encouraged, or compelled to abandon their ancestral ways of life that evolved within the limits of their local ecosystems, and instead to pursue the unsustainable mirage of the so-called “Western lifestyle”. Any short-term rise in living standards in the wake of such abandonment comes at the expense of long-term survivability, as whatever gains seem to be made occur within the framework that is bound to negate them in the near future. And even these temporary gains may not have come nor ever will, as most of the so-called climate refugees and migrants “were poor to begin with and will be poor if we solve climate change” (Goodfellow, 2020). What the worsening impacts of climate change do exceedingly well is expose this underlying dynamic of injustice and short-termism.

Due to these very complexities the number of people who will be forced to move because of climate change is hard to establish with any precision. While some confidently claim that “[o]ver the next 30 years, the climate crisis will displace more than 140 million people within their own countries—and many more beyond them” (Taiwo & Cibralic, 2020), others caution that while “[p]redictions range from 20 million to 200 million of environmental refugees by 2050… these figures are contested” (Atapattu, 2020). For some, the larger the number, the better, as predictions of “hordes” of climate migrants are being exploited and weaponized by movements that seek to accomplish further tightening of migration controls and inflaming of anti-migrant rhetoric – all this despite the fact that most migration occurs within countries or between immediate neighbours (Goodfellow, 2020) and that the countries that host the greatest number of refugees and displaced persons are in fact in the Global South (Atapattu, 2020). Whether (or for how long) this state of affairs is going to continue remains to be seen; what is beyond any doubt is that those who will bear the earliest and greatest brunt of climate disruption are the most vulnerable individuals and communities, even as they have contributed the least to it.

This is where the notion of “climate apartheid” comes in. With the climate crisis intensifying, “social divisions will arise within countries and communities between those who can pay to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and those who cannot” (Taiwo & Cibralic, 2020). These divisions are not the product of any neutral processes that might have sorted out the deserving from the undeserving (despite – tacit more often than explicit – claims to the contrary). While it’s true that “humans have the ability to adapt as well as free will” (de Sherbinin, 2020), available resources and options are constrained by circumstances that are often beyond control of those whose lives are most impacted by them. The ways in which communities can respond to climate events depend on their economic power, location, access to resources, and other factors that are largely shaped and explained by the persistent legacy of slavery, colonialism, and imperialism, that is, global injustices and inequalities that enriched some countries while impoverishing others and whose detrimental effects are now being exacerbated by global warming (Taiwo & Cibralic, 2020).

The term “climate refugee”, for all its growing popularity, “is not a legal term and its use in the legal context is misleading” (Atapattu, 2020). It’s perhaps surprising (and certainly disappointing) that despite the rising awareness of climate change both in the public sphere and the political circles, there are still no internationally recognized conventions that address climate migration, which leaves authorities with no firm guidelines to follow (Pierfilippo & Weinstein, 2020). “[S]ociety and institutions are ill-prepared to meet the coming challenge” (de Sherbinin, 2020) as existing frameworks and solutions in the age of climate change – perhaps the ultimate “threat multiplier” – that aggravates existing problems (Goodfellow, 2020) are bound to fall far short of what is required of the global community in the face of a truly global disruption.

Providing the necessary impulse for reimagining and reorganizing international efforts to alleviate at least some of the social and humanitarian harms of the impending climate catastrophe would require reframing the issue as one of climate reparations. Western states, which have disproportionately contributed to the environmental crisis now assailing the planet, need to see themselves as responsible for having created a system that continues to structurally disadvantage victims of climate breakdown, and as such for redressing these injustices and inequities, so that “taking up their share of global refugee resettlement becomes an obligation rather than an act of charity” (Taiwo & Cibralic, 2020). Through such lens, “climate migration” would correctly be seen as an outcome of a complex process that needs to be dealt with synergistically both in technical and moral terms.

The public sentiment towards migrants has been turning negative in multiple countries, largely because of successful scare tactics and fear campaigns instigated by far-right politicians. This is not inevitable, however. Studies show that “there is a consistently higher social acceptance of migrants fleeing political persecution or war than of economic migrants” and climate events are seen as legitimate reasons to migrate, though not more legitimate than economic needs (Spilker et al., 2020). What this suggests is that one way to help residents of receiving areas in coming to terms with the necessity to welcome people fleeing climate disruption they are unable to adapt to would be to emphasise the political aspect of the situation rather than the economic one, and stress the human dimension of the entire predicament. Such framing could trigger positive responses and allow for a successful integration of the new arrivals into their receiving populations.

“Already, more people live outside of their countries of birth than ever before” (Shah, 2020) and as the 21st century progresses, the numbers are only going to increase. While it’s necessary to mitigate climate disruption as well as to adapt to it, not all individuals and populations will be able to stay in their current locations. 

Nor should they. Climate crisis has exposed tensions and fractures in the foundations of the international order and the global economy that can’t be disregarded and mustn’t be downplayed. To build resilience, which “will be critical for societies to navigate the various emerging challenges in this century” (de Sherbinin, 2020), we need to enhance our understanding of and approach to migration in the shadow of the looming climate crisis.

Przypisy:

Atapattu, S. (2018). “Climate Refugees” and the Role of International Law. [online] Oxford Research Group. Available at: <https://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/blog/climate-refugees-and-the-role-of-international-law> [Accessed 2 November 2020].

de Sherbinin, A. (2020). COVID–19 Impacts of Climate Change as Drivers of Migration. [online] Migration Policy Institute. Available at: <https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/impacts-climate-change-drivers-migration> [Accessed 2 November 2020].

Goodfellow, M. (2020). How Helpful Is The Term ‘Climate Refugee’?. [online] the Guardian. Available at: <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/31/how-helpful-is-the-term-climate-refugee> [Accessed 2 November 2020].

Pierfilippo, M. N. & A. Weinstein (2020). COVID–19 Is a Test for Climate Migration and the World Is Failing. [online] The Diplomat. Available at: <https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/covid-19-is-a-test-for-climate-migration-and-the-world-is-failing/> [Accessed 2 November 2020].

Shah, S. (2020). Climate Change Will Drive People Across Borders. [online] Foreign Affairs. Available at: <https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/central-america-caribbean/2020-07-29/climate-change-will-drive-people-across-borders> [Accessed 2 November 2020].

Spilker, G., Q. Nguyen, V. Koubi & T. Böhmelt (2020). Attitudes of urban residents towards environmental migration in Kenya and Vietnam. Nature Climate Change, 10(7), pp. 622-627. <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0805-1>.

Taiwo, O. O. & B. Cibralic (2020). The Case for Climate Reparations. [online] Foreign Policy. Available at: <https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/10/case-for-climate-reparations-crisis-migration-refugees-inequality/> [Accessed 2 November 2020].

Dawid Juraszek

Expert on global environmental issues. Author of the book 'Anthropocene for Beginners. Climate, Environment, Pandemics in the Age of Man'. PhD student at Maastricht University (cognitive ecocriticism), graduate in English philology, educational leadership, environmental management and international relations. He has written for, among others, Dwutygodnik, Liberté!, Krytyka Polityczna, Gazeta Wyborcza, Polityka, Newsweek, Ha!art, Lampa, Focus Historia, Travel and Poznaj Świat, as well as for numerous publications in the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Ireland and New Zealand. He has worked in Chinese higher education for several years.

czytaj więcej

Book review: “Europe – North Korea. Between Humanitarianism And Business?”

Book review of "Europe – North Korea. Between Humanitarianism And Business?", written by Myung-Kyu Park, Bernhard Seliger, Sung-Jo Park (Eds.) and published by Lit Verlag in 2010.

Drug and Road Initiative, that is the Silk Road of drug

This paper deals with the issue of drug business in post-Soviet Central Asia, a region that plays a key role in the trafficking of banned substances from Asia (mainly Afghanistan) to Europe. The study briefly presents the areas that make up the picture of drug business in Central Asia, paying attention to production and distribution.

The link between EU Aid and Good Governance in Central Asia

Nowadays all the CA states continue transitioning into the human-centered model of governance where the comprehensive needs of societies must be satisfied, nevertheless, the achievements are to a greater extent ambiguous.

Guidance for Workplaces on Preparing for Coronavirus Spread

Due to the spread of coronavirus, the following workplace recommendations have been issued by the Ministry of Development, in cooperation with the Chief Sanitary Inspector. We also invite you to read article about general information and recommendations for entrepreneurs.

Beyond Grey Hulls: Europe’s Role in “Crowdsourcing” Maritime Domain Awareness in the South China Sea

If developments observed in the South China Sea over the recent months are of any indication, it simply means that the situation has worsened. China’s continued aggression towards its neighbors – the Philippines and Vietnam in particular, has continued unabated.

Patrycja Pendrakowska for Observer Research Foundation: “Managing fear and easing lockdown in Poland”

We would like to inform, that Observer Research Foundation has published article of Patrycja Pendrakowska - the Boym Institute Analyst and President of the Board.

Polish-Kazakh Business Forum

An interview with Mr. Meirzhan Yussupov, Chairman of the Board of the “National Company” KAZAKH INVEST” JSC - Member of the Board of Directors of the Company

From quantity to quality. Demographic transition in China – interview with Prof. Lauren Johnston

What we observe in China is a population reduction strategy paired with the socio-economic transition. In my view it’s not a crisis, but it is a very challenging transition.

Indonesia – between religion and democracy

Indonesia is the largest Muslim democracy in the world. Approximately 88% of the population in Indonesia declares Islamic religion, but in spite of this significant dominance, Indonesia is not a religious state.

Book review: “North Korean Defectors in a New and Competitive Society”

Book review of "North Korean Defectors in a New and Competitive Society", written by Lee Ahlam - assistant professor in the Department of Educational Leadership and Human Resource Development at Xavier University Cincinnati, Ohio.

Short summary of events at the Boym Institute

We want the Boym Institute to become a valuable platform of exchanging views, making valuable acquaintances and, above all, deepening knowledge. Therefore, we undertake the organization of many events: debates, lectures, and conferences.

Paweł Behrendt for 9DASHLINE: The South China Sea – from colonialism to the Cold War

We would like to inform, that 9DASHLINE has published article of Paweł Behrendt - the Boym Institute Analyst, in which he wrote about history of the South China Sea dispute over the 20th century.

“Green growth” may well be more of the same

Witnessing the recent flurry of political activity amid the accelerating environmental emergency, from the Green New Deal to the UN climate summits to European political initiatives, one could be forgiven for thinking that things are finally moving forward.

Online Course: “Feminism and Democracy: a Deep Dive”

The course will be taught via interactive workshops, employing the Adam Institute’s signature “Betzavta – the Adam Institute’s Facilitation Method“, taught by its creator, Dr. Uki Maroshek-Klarman. The award-winning “Betzavta” method is rooted in an empirical approach to civic education, interpersonal communication and conflict resolution.

Women’s liberation in China: interview with prof. Wu Lijuan

Interview of Ewelina Horoszkiewicz with prof. Wu Lijuan - Associate Professor at the Department of Sociology at Peking University. Her research concentrates on the gender issues and social changes brought about by globalization. She wrote a book “Job Placements and Job Shifts in China: The Effects of Education, Family Background and Gender”.

Peace is a precondition for LiFE. How systemic conflicts endanger developmental goals

The G20 can play a pivotal role in dealing with the mounting global challenges by proposing policy coordination and solutions disincentivising armed conflicts.

Patrycja Pendrakowska as a participant of Women Economic Forum (WEF) in India

The interactive discussion covers recent projects and collaborations which have contributed to a greener economy in India

Young Indo-Pacific: Forward-looking perspectives on the EU Indo-Pacific Strategy

The Boym Institute, working with other think tanks, organizes panel discussions on topics related to the European Union's Indo-Pacific strategy

Global Gateway 101: A Short Guide to the EU’s Development Initiatives and their Challenges in Asia

The 2010s and 2020s have been marked by intense geopolitical competition, not only in traditional military and economic terms but also in the realm of global development initiatives.

Central Asia. The winding road to regional integration

The aim of the paper is to present the current stage of integration among the Central Asian republics and to analyze directions and dynamics of this process in the nearest future. This study also attempts to identify factors which can either slow down or strengthen the process of integration as well as its causes and consequences.

An “Asian NATO”: Chances and perspectives

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has reinvigorated NATO. Can the Chinese pressure on its neighbours, especially Taiwan, create an Asian equivalent of NATO?

Development strategies for Ulaanbaatar according to the conception for the city’s 2040 General Development Plan- part 1

In the first part of this analysis of Ulaanbaatar’s winning 2040 General Development Plan Conception (GDPC) I look into the historical preconditions for the city’s planned development as well as present the legislative climate in which works on Ulaanbaatar’s future development strategies have recently found themselves.

Internet, cryptocurrencies & blockchains in North Korea

North Korea is considered as a secretive state, but, paradoxically, the country is developing last trend technologies. With prohibitions restricting the flow of money, the country is turning to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to finance their programs, instead of coming under new pressure.

WICCI’s India-EU Business Council – a new platform for women in business

Interview with Ada Dyndo, President of WICCI's India-EU Business Council and Principal Consultant of European Business and Technology Centre